Tension between the Ukraine and Russia have escalated recently, with each nation’s military mobilizing along the border and Ukraine fearing the potential of a full-scale Russian invasion.
The Institute for the Study of War has noted that Russia has been building up troop and military equipment along the Ukraine’s northern and eastern territories, and in the southern region of Crimea, which Russia currently occupies.
According to the Institute, these build up could allow Russia to conduct multiple simultaneous invasion of the Ukraine and, with the added pressure from Russian backed separatists in the East, weaken its ability to counter any of the threats militarily.
Russia managed to scale up its troops in these regions following the events of August 8th, which, according to the Russian government, saw Ukraine attempt to plant saboteurs within the occupied territory of Crimea, ending with these units capture. The Russian owned media has obtained a video of allegedly showing one of the Ukrainians explaining their mission within the region.
According to the media, they were sent into the Crimea with weapons and explosives to cause diversions and disorder. The brief conflict allegedly resulted in the death of a Russian soldier and an FSB agent.
Following the announcement of Russia’s interception of these units, Ukraine quickly built up troops along its border and placed these troops on high alert, preparing them for the potential of combat at any moment.
According to the Institute this mobilization will spread Ukraine’s forces much thinner, weaken Ukraine’s already weak finances and disturb its currently tumultuous political situation.
This situation has already lead to a freezing of relations between the nations and may result in a tense stalemate. According to experts, the clear red line would be if NATO made Ukraine a member of the alliance. Russia would see such a move as a declaration of war by the West.
Such a conflict has lead some to speculate that it would have major repercussions around the globe, such as further acceleration in the South China Sea spurred by a lowered US presence and closer relations between China and Russia.
The situation is constantly evolving and the end goals of both nations is likely to reach some sort of a favourable compromise without resorting to military force and conflict.